How to correctly view the anti imbalance state of

  • Detail

How to correctly view the anti imbalance state of the steel industry

at present, there are some anti imbalance states in the steel industry, which once became a new feature and phenomenon of the industry, specifically reflected in the lack of peak and off-season steel consumption, excess iron ore supply and insufficient steel supply. So, how to treat this phenomenon correctly

first, from the four development stages of the steel industry. Before 2008, steel consumption increased significantly, but faced with a serious shortage of steel production capacity and iron ore supply, resulting in a sharp rise in ore and steel prices. From 2009 to 2013, although steel consumption was still in the stage of substantial growth, due to the serious shortage of iron ore supply due to the transformation of steel production capacity from insufficient to excess, the ore price rose sharply, the steel price rose slightly, and the profits of steel enterprises were significantly compressed. From 2014 to 2016, China's steel consumption fell, and there was a serious excess of steel production capacity and iron ore supply, resulting in a continuous decline in ore and steel prices, and serious losses in steel mills. Starting from 2017, steel consumption will also decline, national policies will increase efforts to reduce production capacity, and the degree of steel overcapacity will be alleviated. However, iron ore supply is still in excess. Therefore, the increase of ore price cannot catch up with the increase of steel price, which makes it inevitable for steel mills to expand profits

second, from the new characteristics of the steel industry in 2017. On the one hand, the supply and demand of steel has been in an anti imbalance state that has not been seen for many years. Before 2016, the steel industry faced a long-term oversupply; In 2016, the supply and demand of the steel industry switched repeatedly, and prices opened and closed widely; In 2017, steel supply exceeded demand, and steel profits expanded significantly. On the other hand, steel consumption is not prosperous in the peak season and not weak in the off-season. Historically, the peak of annual steel consumption mostly occurred in March April and September October in the second half of the year. 2017 broke history. The consumption from May to July was higher than that from March to April, which was not seen in recent years. At present, due to environmental protection and safety inspection, limiting the supply and consumption of steel mills, it is also reasonable that the peak season of steel mills in September to October is not prosperous

third, from the perspective of the rapid growth of steel consumption. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the growth rate of steel consumption in 2016 was only about 2.5%, the data deduced by relevant departments was 8.5%, and the growth rate of output was 1.6% and 8.9% respectively. But at present, steel consumption has maintained a high-speed growth of more than 15% for three consecutive months, mainly because 75% of China's steel is used in real estate. Therefore, grasping the real estate consumption will play an important role in predicting steel consumption. At the same time, new technological revolutions continue to emerge. Nowadays, steel structure buildings gradually replace brick and wood structure buildings, high-speed transportation replaces ordinary railways and rural dirt roads, and the general construction of urban underground rail transit all make the steel demand intensity increase by leaps and bounds. In particular, the construction of high-speed channels between high mountains in the southwest, all of which are elevated, tunnels connect high bridges, and all kinds of steel required for the construction of 100 kilometers of roads will be dozens or even hundreds of times that of the past construction of winding sand and gravel roads, which also accelerates the rapid growth of steel demand

fourth, from the perspective of profit and price. Supply determines enterprise profits, and consumption determines price direction. In the first half of 2017, the iron ore market in China increased by 60million tons, and the world increased by nearly 90million tons. From the perspective of iron ore production and shipments from the five major mines in the second half of the year, iron ore will also increase in the second half of the year, with a total increase of 160 million tons, a consumption increase of 100 million tons, and a gap of 60 million tons may occur in the middle. There are four new channels for iron ore, ranking as follows: Australia has the largest increment, Brazil is the second, China is the third, and India is the fourth. It is estimated that China's consumption increase will be 50-70 million tons, and the global total consumption increase will be less than 100 million tons. It is difficult for iron ore to have a continuous active reduction of 1. 5% in the next four months First, check the pull hangar. By the end of the year, the iron ore inventory is expected to accumulate around 160million to 170million tons. High prices will still stimulate the release of global iron ore supply. At the same time, with the continuous increase of iron ore supply, a new feature of iron ore price has been formed. There was no capacity bottleneck in 2016, so the material and ore rose together. In 2017, the pig iron production capacity encountered a bottleneck. With the continuous growth of consumption, the ore was significantly weaker than the finished product by about 5%. The weakness of the ore created high profits, and the change of profits affected the rhythm of the ore price

in general, for more than two consecutive years, China's steel market has exactly played its due role in the "plastic limit order" to facilitate the continuous warming, and the price has risen significantly. Of course, looking forward to the future trend of steel, based on the joint support of long-term and short-term benefits, consumer demand continues to be strong. At the same time, the gradual liquidation of excess capacity helps to balance long-term supply and demand, forming a new rising cycle of the steel market. On the one hand, with the general end of the "make-up" stage from the low price level to the reasonable price level, the steel market continues to heat up, the overall price level is still rising, and the annual average price will be higher than that of the previous year, rather than declining. On the other hand, the price rise showed a moderate trend rather than a sharp rise, with an annual price increase of about 3%. Therefore, this imbalance is temporary and normal. It will be balanced with the further implementation of various policies to reduce production capacity, as well as the increase of environmental protection and production restriction and environmental remediation. The iron and steel industry is bound to embark on a normal road of rapid development

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI